The conventional policy perspective is that lowering the interest rate increases output and inflation in the short run, while maintaining inflation at a higher level requires a higher interest rate in the long run. In contrast it has been argued that a Neo-Fisherian policy of setting an interest-rate peg at a fixed higher level will increase the inflation rate. We show that adaptive learning ar...

In this paper we re–examine banks’ lending behavior taking into account changes in the stance of monetary policy in conjunction with changes in financial sector uncertainty. Using a very large data set covering all banks in the US between 1979–2000, we show that financial sector uncertainty plays an important role in banks’ lending decisions: for a given size classification, less liquid banks (...

We study the e¤ects of progressive labor income taxation in an otherwise standard NK model. We show that progressive taxation (i) introduces a trade-o¤ between output and in‡ation stabilization and a¤ects the slope of the Phillips Curve; (ii) acts as automatic stabilizer changing the responses to technology shocks and demand shocks (iii) alters the prescription for the optimal monetary policy. ...

The primary concern of this paper is understanding how prices and interest rates respond to open-market operations. In a model economy developed by Grossman and Weiss, but with more general utility functions, we establish global existence of equilibrium paths and observe that prices and interest rates rise initially, but thereafter oscillate around a new steady state. Also investigated are opti...

We examine global dynamics under learning in New Keynesian models with price level targeting that is subject to the zero lower bound. The role of forward guidance is analyzed under transparency about the policy rule. Properties of transparent and non-transparent regimes are compared to each other and to the corresponding cases of inflation targeting. Robustness properties for different regimes ...

Inflation targeting needs to be supplemented by an economic growth target so that central banks will not adopt monetary policy which results in stagnation. There is no guarantee that the economy will move towards full employment by itself when the inflation rate is kept between two to three per cent. Monetary policy does not have a comparative advantage in achieving price stability. Svensson's ...

This paper proposes a simple prototype model that describes the complex dynamics of a sophisticated monetary economy. The interaction between the current and intertemporal financial constraints on economic units brings about irregular fluctuations at both micro and macro levels. We use qualitative dynamic analysis and numerical simulations to investigate the interaction between financial fragil...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI in‡ation (core in‡ation) for Italy is estimated over the 1962-1997 period within the framework of a multivariate common trends model. In this framework core in‡ation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of in‡ation. This measure displays several desirable properties: lower variability than observed in‡ation,...

This paper develops recursive methods to study optimal and time consistent policy in dynamic models. We analyze a version of Calvo's 1978 monetary model and show that its time consistent outcomes can be completely characterized as the largest fixed point of either of two operators. Recursive application of these operators provides a computing algorithm which always converges to the set of time ...

This paper develops a measure of U.S. monetary policy shocks for the period 1969–1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. Quantitative and narrative records are used to infer the Federal Reserve’s intentions for the federal funds rate around FOMC meetings. This series is regressed on the Federal Reserve’s internal forecasts to derive a measure free of systematic re...