In this article we provide a review of the literature with respect to the e$cient markets hypothesis and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the martingale behavior of asset prices to nonlinear chaotic dynamics, discuss some recent techniques used in distinguishing between probabilistic and deterministic behavior in asset prices, and report some evidence. Moreover, we look at the controversies that...

In this paper, I find that real U.S. GDP is better characterized as a trend stationary Markov-switching process than as having a (regime-dependent) unit root. I examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance. JEL Classification: E32, C22, E27.

If returns are not predictable, dividend growth must be predictable, to generate the observed variation in divided yields. I find that the absence of dividend growth predictability gives stronger evidence than does the presence of return predictability. Long-horizon return forecasts give the same strong evidence. These tests exploit the negative correlation of return forecasts with dividend-yie...

A new semiparametric proportional hazard rate model is proposed which extends standard models to include a dynamic speci cation. Two main problems are resolved in the course of this paper. First, the partial likelihood approach to estimate the components of a standard proportional hazard model is not available in a dynamic model involving lags of the log integrated baseline hazard. We use a dis...

We consider an equilibrium model à la Kyle-Back for a defaultable claim issued by a given firm. In such a market the insider observes continuously in time the value of firm, which is unobservable by the market makers. Using the construction of a dynamic Bessel bridge of dimension 3 in [5], we provide the equilibrium price and the optimal insider’s strategy. As in [3], the information released b...

This paper studies the design of monitoring policies in dynamic settings with moral hazard. The firm benefits from having a reputation for quality, and the principal can learn the firm’s quality by conducting costly inspections. Monitoring plays two roles: An incentive role, because the outcome of inspections affects the firm’s reputation, and an informational role because the principal values ...

This paper analyzes the effects of information leakage on trading behavior and market efficiency. It shows that a trader who receives a leaked signal prior to a public announcement can exploit this private information twice. First, when he receives his signal, and second, at the time of the public announcement. The latter effect occurs because he can best infer the extent to which his informati...

This paper offers a continuous time, general equilibrium model where a risky asset is traded among risk-averse overconfident investors. Two kinds of overconfidence are introduced: investors exhibit relative overconfidence if each investor believes her model is better than others’ and aggregate overconfidence if they believe signals have more information content than those in the true model. Rel...

PURPOSE To investigate the effect of alkylphosphocholines (APCs) on human retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) attachment, spreading, migration, and microfilament assembly in vitro. METHODS Cultured RPE cells of five human donors were treated with one of four APCs (C18:1-PC, C20:1-PC, C21:1-PC, or C22:1-PC) in the presence of fetal calf serum. Cell viability was tested by the trypan blue exclusio...