We analyze the euro area business cycle in a medium scale DSGE model where we assume two stochastic trends: one on total factor productivity and one on the in ation target of the central bank. To justify our choice of integrated trends, we test alternative speci cations for both of them. We do so, estimating trends together with the model's structural parameters, to prevent estimation biases. I...

We examine solutions in which neither player is worse off from the leadership of one in a policy maker-public game. The loop model of dynamic games is used. Outcome space is dotted with equivalence classes of solutions. The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) results and their New Keynesian variants might represent one category. The economy is the neighborhood of a market-clearing equ...

The Great Recession seems to be a natural experiment for macroeconomics showing the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical framework — the New Neoclassical Synthesis — grounded on the DSGE model. In this paper, we present a critical discussion of the theoretical, empirical and political-economy pitfalls of the DSGE-based approach to policy analysis. We suggest that a more fruitful research a...

This paper reconsiders the developments of model evaluation in macroeconometrics over the last forty years. Our analysis starts from the failure of Cowles foundation models. The different diagnosis of this failure are then analyzed to classify them in two groups: explanations related to problems in the theoretical models that lead to problems in the identification of the relevant econometric mo...