I construct a novel measure of aggregate dispersion in economists’ opinion on macroeconomic forecasts. The measure aggregates dispersion across relevant economic releases over one week and is used to predict stock returns in the subsequent week. I provide evidence that higher aggregate dispersion predicts lower future stock market returns by 27 basis points in the subsequent week. The impact is...

It has long been recognized that average wages vary strikingly across regions and urban areas, in part due to differences in local amenities and fiscal policies. However, analogous differences in wage dispersion remain relatively unexplored. We develop a model suggesting that, after accounting for individual characteristics, wage dispersion across income groups should reflect differences in the...

[1] In this technical note we study mixing in a two‐dimensional linear shear flow. We derive analytical expressions for the concentration field for an arbitrary initial condition in an unbounded two‐dimensional shear flow. We focus on the solution for a point initial condition and study the evolution of (1) the second centered moments as a measure for the plume dispersion, (2) the dilution inde...

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxix 1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Atmospheric Nucleation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Nucleation Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.1 Nucleation Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....

Pollution in metropolitan cities has become a serious problem, resulting in poor living conditions and serious health problems. Pollution being qualified as a complex system, we propose a multi-agent approach to model and simulate it, so that we could study, analyze and predict it better. As in the early stage of the project, we have some successful experiments and attempts to integrate the mat...

This paper investigates the synergistic interaction in a gasification of coal and petcoke blends in a 150 kWth pilot scale gasification plant. Petcoke was used either in combination with coal or separately to produce syngas in an atmospheric fluidized bed gasifier using air as gasifying agent. Syngas composition and carbon conversion efficiency were recorded and calculated. The results show tha...

The longitudinal profile of extensive air showers is sensitive to the energy and type/mass of the primary particle. One of its characteristics, the atmospheric depth of shower maximum, is often used to reconstruct the elemental composition of primary cosmic rays. In this article, the impact of the atmospheric density profile on the reconstruction of the depth of maximum, as observed in fluoresc...

High energy γ-ray astronomy has been established during the last decade through the launch of the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) and the success of its ground-based counterpart, the imaging atmospheric Cherenkov technique. In the aftermath of their important and surprising scientific results a worldwide effort developing and designing new generation atmospheric Cherenkov detectors is unde...

Distributed applications execute in environments that can include different network architectures as well as a range of compute platforms. Furthermore, these resources are shared by many users. Therefore these applications receive varying levels of service from the environment. Since the availability of resources in a networked environment often determines overall application performance, adapt...