According to the adverse consequences that are brought by financial distress for companies, economy and financial –monetary institutions, the use of methods that can predict the occurrence of financial failure and prevent the loss of wealth is of great importance. The major models of credit risk assessment are based on retrospective information and using the methods which use the updated market...

We propose a dynamically consistent framework that allows joint valuation and estimation of stock options and credit default swaps written on the same reference company. We model default as controlled by a Poisson process with a stochastic default arrival rate. When default occurs, the stock price drops to zero. Prior to default, the stock price follows a continuous process with stochastic vola...

Modeling correlated default risk is a new phenomenon currently sweeping through the credit markets. Little is known about the drivers of default risk at the portfolio level. This paper develops a methodology to assess alternative specifications of the joint distribution of default risk. Specifications are based on three criteria: level, asymmetry, and tail-dependence in the joint default distri...

The existence of a non-stochastic or predictable risk-free interest rate has been a critical premise in financial economics. In equity and equity option pricing, since default-free bonds are assumed as risk-free assets, the risk-free interest rate may be approximated by the observable yields of short-term Treasury bills. If the dynamics of the entire term structure cannot be ignored, since none...

The theory of acceptance sets and their associated risk measures plays a key role in the design of capital adequacy tests. The objective of this paper is to investigate the class of surplus-invariant acceptance sets. We argue that surplus invariance is a reasonable requirement from a regulatory perspective, since the corresponding capital adequacy tests do not depend on the surplus of a financi...

Researchers are increasingly using internet instruments such as email and online surveys as data-collection methods. However, web survey response rates are fairly low, which threatens the efficiency of weh surveys. To use weh surveys to gather data effectively, it is thus critical to improve the response rate of participants without compromising the low-cost advantage of this approach. The goal...

The quality spread differential is defined to be the difference between the default premiums demanded for fixed rate and floating rate risky debts. The risky debt model based on Merton’s firm value approach is used to examine the behaviors of the quality spread differential of fixed rate and floating rate debts. We extend earlier result by adopting Geometric Brownian diffusion process with jump...

This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different lev...

Under certain monetary-fiscal regimes the risk of default and thus the emergence of sovereign risk premiums are inevitable. This paper argues that in this context even small differences in the specification of monetary policy can have enormous effects on the equilibrium behavior of default rates and risk premiums. Under some monetary policy rules studied, the conditional expectation of default ...

Sovereign debt spreads occasionally exhibit sharp, large spikes in spreads over riskfree bonds. We document that these movements are only weakly correlated with movements in domestic output and are frequently followed by reductions in the face value of debt outstanding. Motivated by this evidence, we propose a quantitative model with long-term bonds and three sources of risk: fluctuations in th...