Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying analysis cycles. In this paper, we review recent empirical theoretical literature that motivates paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis (or “scarring” parlance) has sparked by pe...

I use monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980’s, with focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades. From 2008M12, an upward shift in the cross-sectional distribution of cycles synchronization is sizeab...