Multiresolution wavelet analysis is a natural way to decompose economic time series into components of various frequencies: long-run trend, business-cycle component, and high frequency noise. This paper illustrates the method on real GNP and inflation. The business-cycle component of the wavelet-filtered series closely resembles the series filtered by the approximate bandpass filter (Baxter and...

This paper assesses whether the UK public finances were sustainable for the period 1919 to 2001 using a nonlinear representation of the debt to GDP ratio and thus provides a more robust test of debt sustainability. Empirical evidence supports debt sustainability. Moreover, the ESTAR representation is evidence that sustainability is the result of active debt management rather than tax-smoothing....

Monthly seasonally unadjusted data can exhibit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration, corresponding to the monthly but also to the quarterly and to the long-run or trending components of the series. In this paper we use a procedure which is suitable to test simultaneously for the order of integration of each of these components and apply it to several US monetary aggregates. JEL ...

in this paper, i investigated the determinants of financial development with emphasis on social capital. first, i explain the relationship between financial development and its determinants, then estimate the model with gregory–hansen (1996) and johansen-juselious cointegration techniques in i.r. of iran (1971-2006). the results showed that, inflation and decline in social capital and weak prop...

in this paper, the effect of financial liberalization on household’s budget liquidity constraint is analyzed with the use of an error correction model. financial liberalization will decline liquidity constraint, with expanding means of making future incomes available for present consumption. here a financial liberalization index for iran is defined using principal component analysis technique, ...

this paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in indonesia. it assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. in so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of gdp to a monetary p...

A panel of ex-ante forecasts of a single time series is modeled as a dynamic factor model, where the conditional expectation is the single unobserved factor. When applied to out-of-sample forecasting, this leads to combination forecasts that are based on methods other than OLS. These methods perform well in a Monte Carlo experiment. These methods are evaluated empirically in a panel of simulate...

Abstract The aim of the paper is to compare forecasting performance a class statedependent autoregressive (SDAR) models for univariate time series with two alternative families nonlinear models, such as SETAR and GARCH models. study conducted on US GDP growth rate using quarterly data. Two methods forecast comparison are employed. first method consists in evaluation average by measures root mea...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions ability to flexibly whole distribution inflation. In order make our approach accessible and relevant forecasting, we derive an efficient Gibbs sampler by transforming stat...

In this paper we develop a canonical state space representation for rational stochastic processes containing unit roots with integer integration orders at arbitrary points on the unit circle. It is shown that the state space framework, which is – in a certain sense made precise in the paper – equivalent to the ARMA framework, is very suitable for the analysis of unit roots and cointegration iss...