background: this study attempted to investigate traffic accident fatalities during 2004-2009 and the effect of fuel rationing on traffic accident fatalities .   materials and methods: this was a cross-sectional study on available data of all traffic accident fatalities in fars province, iran, during 2004-2009. to identify and fit the best model, various instruments, including the autocorrelatio...

multiple sclerosis (ms) is one of the autoimmune diseases with an unknown cause. the aim of this study was to explore the link between air quality and ms relapses in patients who suffer from ms.this time-series study was conducted on patients registered at the iranian multiple sclerosis society in 2011-2012. they were randomly selected from patients lived in tehran in the last five years, and h...

We propose to define the complexity of an ecological model as the statistical complexity of the output it produces. This allows for a direct comparison between data and model complexity. Working with univariate time series, we show that this measure ‘blindly’ discriminates among the different dynamical behaviours a model can exhibit. We then search a model parameter space in order to segment it...

Abstract In this study, we propose a nonlinear Bayesian extension of the Lee–Carter (LC) model using single-stage procedure with dimensionality reduction neural network (NN). LC is originally estimated two-stage procedure: data by singular value decomposition followed time series fitting. To address limitations LC, which are attributed to estimation and insufficient fitness data, procedures sta...

In this paper, we consider some identification, estimation and specification problems in a class of semi–linear time series models. Existing studies for the stationary time series case have been reviewed and discussed. We also establish some new results for the integrated time series case. In the meantime, we propose a new estimation method and establish a new theory for a class of semi–linear ...

This paper introduces constrained mixtures for continuous distributions, characterized by a mixture of distributions where each distribution has a shape similar to the base distribution and disjoint domains. This new concept is used to create generalized asymmetric versions of the Laplace and normal distributions, which are shown to define exponential families, with known conjugate priors, and ...

background and objective: scorpion sting and snakebite are the important problems in some area such as iran that must be addressed. this study was to investigate temporal pattern of scorpion sting and snakebite incidence in patients referred to masjedsoleiman’s main hospital, during 24 months from 21 march 2008 to 20 march 2009. materials and methods: it was an analytical study to scrutiny of m...