The purpose of this paper is to examine two factors, gold production and export prices, that have been suggested as having aided Australia's escape from the deflation it faced in the early 1890s. In order to examine the factors influencing Australian domestic prices in the second half of the nineteenth century, annual data over the period 1861-1900 are used to estimate a structural vector autor...

this paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in indonesia. it assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. in so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of gdp to a monetary p...

We study the problem of estimating some unknown regression function in a β-mixing dependent framework. To this end, we consider some collection of models which are finite dimensional spaces. A penalized leastsquares estimator (PLSE) is built on a data driven selected model among this collection. We state non asymptotic risk bounds for this PLSE and give several examples where the procedure can ...

The standard derivation of the accelerationist Phillips curve relates expected real wage innation to the unemployment rate and invokes a constant price markup and adaptive expectations to generate the accelerationist price innation formula. Blanchhower and Oswald (1994) argue that microeconomic evidence of a low autoregression coeecient in real wage regressions invalidates the macroeconomic Phi...

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the private sector maize marketing system in Malawi using threshold autoregression models. Two dimensions of maize market performance are evaluated: (1) inter-regional trade and spatial price transmission; and (2) storage and seasonal price relationships. In both cases, threshold autoregression models which account for nonlinearities predicted by econom...

This paper derives an analytical expression for an impulse-response function for a vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH errors, where the vector of conditional means is a function of the conditional variances. We also provide the appropriate interpretation of an impulse-response function for such models and suggest interesting empirical issues that can be addressed within this framework.

Traditional approaches to structural interpretation of vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs about certain aspects of the model. These traditional methods can be generalized with a less restrictive Bayesian formulation that allows the researcher to summarize uncertainty coming not just from the data but also uncertaint...