Projections of future climate change caused by increasing greenhouse gases depend critically on numerical climate models coupling the ocean and atmosphere (GCMs). However, different models differ substantially in their projections, which raises the question of how the different models can best be combined into a probability distribution of future climate change. For this analysis, we have colle...

Abstract Climate change projections (CCPs) are based on the multimodel means of individual climate model simulations that assumed to be independent. However, similarity leads biased toward largest set similar models and intermodel uncertainty underestimation. We assessed influences similarities in CMIP6 through CMIP3 CCPs. ascertained from shared physics/dynamics initial conditions by comparing...

climate change has direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. agriculture and cropproduction is one of the factors which depend on the weather conditions and it provides the human requirements inmany aspects. the objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climatic change on irrigated rice yieldusing the ceres-rice model in the southern coast of caspia...

The increasing rate of the global surface temperature will have a significant impact on local hydrological regimes and water resources, which leads to the assessment of the climate change impacts. Main parameters that are closely related to the climate change are temperature and precipitation. Therefore, there is a growing need for an integrated analysis that can quantify the impacts of climate...

uncertainty associated with mixing models is often substantial, but has not yet been fully incorporated in models. the objective of this study is to develop and apply a bayesian-mixing model that estimates probability distributions of source contributions to a mixture associated with multiple sources for assessing the uncertainty estimation in sediment fingerprinting in zidasht catchment, iran....

An Assessment of Uncertainty Regional Climate Change Models, Error Correction Methods and Forecasting in Birjand Township

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate the impacts of climate change on a global scale. Despite these efforts, we are committed to substantial further changes over at least the next few decades. Societies will therefore have to adapt to changes ...

(2005): The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation.In: Global Environmental Change Part A, vol. 15, no. 2: 151-163. Carter, T. (2007): Assessing the adaptive capacity of the finish environment and society under a climate change: FINADAPT. Summary for policy makers. Helsinki.: Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards: A ne...

Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model u...