providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price in...

The paper studies a factor GARCH model and develops test procedures which can be used to test the number of factors needed to model the conditional heteroskedasticity in the considered time series vector. Assuming normally distributed errors the parameters of the model can be straightforwardly estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Inefficient but computationally simple preliminary esti...

This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...

This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.

Article history: Received 15 May 2007 Received in revised form 26 January 2009 Accepted 28 January 2009 Available online 6 February 2009 This paper uses an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane [Campbell, J.Y., Cochrane, J.H., 1999. By force of habit: A consumption-based explanation of aggregate stockmarket behavior. Jo...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. Different measures of the possible gains of model selection are considered: (i) the chances of finding th...

This paper estimates a Structural Dynamic Factor Model on a panel of 102 US quarterly series. We model economic comovements by means of 5 underlying structural shocks (oil price, productivity, aggregate demand, monetary policy, and housing demand). The results of the benchmark model (impulse responses and variance decompositions) are in line with those predicted by economic theory and usually e...

Relying on a present value model with time-varying expected returns, and incorporating a quite general class of processes to model bubble-like stock price deviations from the long-run equilibrium, we provide empirical evidence on the U.S. log dividend–price ratio over the 1871:1–2001:9 period, as well as for several sub-periods. The application of a momentum threshold autoregressive technique d...

In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with economic content are found: (i) the spread between the longand the short-term nominal interest rates, (ii) the long-term real interest rate, and (iii) a long-run demand for broad money M3. There is evidence that the determina...

In 2007, Germany changed network access regulation in the natural gas sector and introduced a so-called entry–exit system. The spot market effects of the reregulation remain to be examined. We use cointegration analysis and a state space model with time-varying coefficients to study the development of natural gas spot prices in the two major trading hubs in Germany and the interlinked spot mark...