We address the question of unemployment hysteresis within the context of ARFIMA models. Our results suggest that in the post-1973 era, hysteresis is considerably less of a stylized fact for the unemployment rates of key OECD economies. JEL Categories C22, E30 Please address all correspondence to: Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, Brewster * Building, East Carolina University, Greenville,...

In this paper we generalize the KPSS-type test to allow for two structural breaks. Seven models have been de…ned depending on the way that the structural breaks a¤ect the time series behaviour. The paper derives the limit distribution of the test both under the null and the alternative hypotheses and conducts a set of simulation experiments to analyse the performance in …nite samples. Keywords:...

A new approach to robust testing in cointegrated systems is proposed using nonparametric HAC estimators without truncation. While such HAC estimates are inconsistent, they still produce asymptotically pivotal tests and, as in conventional regression settings, can improve testing and inference. JEL Classi…cation: C12; C14; C22 Keywords: Cointegration, HAC estimation, robust inference, steep orig...

This paper derives analytical results for determination of the window size that explores the trade-off between bias and forecast error variance to minimize the mean squared forecast error in the presence of breaks. We show analytically how to determine the estimation window optimally for the case with strictly exogenous regressors. Through Monte Carlo simulations the paper compares the performa...

This paper analyzes the asymptotic behavior of two types of so-called KPSS tests when a logarithm transformation has been applied spuriously to data that are themselves an integrated time series. Although a different limit distribution is obtained, the asymptotic convergence behavior of the KPSS statistic is reminiscent of that of integrated time series, and it is shown that the KPSS test canno...

This paper assesses whether the UK public finances were sustainable for the period 1919 to 2001 using a nonlinear representation of the debt to GDP ratio and thus provides a more robust test of debt sustainability. Empirical evidence supports debt sustainability. Moreover, the ESTAR representation is evidence that sustainability is the result of active debt management rather than tax-smoothing....

We study the stationary solution to the recursion Xn+1 = γXn+ξn, where γ ∈ (0, 1) is a constant and ξn are Gaussian variables with random parameters. Specifically, we assume that ξn = μn + σnεn, where (ε)n∈Z is an i.i.d. sequence of standard normal variables and (μn, σn)n∈Z is a stationary and ergodic process independent of (εn)n∈Z, which serves as an exogenous dynamic environment for the model...

Monthly seasonally unadjusted data can exhibit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration, corresponding to the monthly but also to the quarterly and to the long-run or trending components of the series. In this paper we use a procedure which is suitable to test simultaneously for the order of integration of each of these components and apply it to several US monetary aggregates. JEL ...

We re-examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy (e.g. Ravenna andWalsh, 2006), employing recently developed moment-conditions inference methods, including identi…cation-robust procedures. Using US data, our results suggest that the cost channel e¤ect is poorly identi…ed and we are thus unable to corroborate the previous results in the literature. Keywords: Cost chan...

This paper examines the role of carry trade and momentum trading strategies and their implications for the magnitude of the forward premium anomaly. The formal analysis uses a logistic smooth transition regression, with transition variables related to the di¤erent currency trading strategies. The hypothesis of uncovered interest parity is found to hold in an upper regime where carry trades appe...