Objectively derived resolution-dependent criteria are defined for the detection of tropical cyclones in model simulations and observationally based analyses. These criteria are derived from the wind profiles of observed tropical cyclones, averaged at various resolutions. Both an analytical wind profile model and two-dimensional observed wind analyses are used. The results show that the threshol...

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the nature and causes of their variability is of paramount importance for society. However, historical records of TCs are too short to fully characterize such changes and paleo-sediment archives of Holocene TC activity are temporally and geographically sparse. Thus, it is of interest to apply physical modeling to ...

An ingredients-based approach (e.g., Johns and Doswell 1992) is used in the operational prediction of tornado threat, regardless of whether the favorable environment results from midlatitude or tropical perturbations. Since the majority of tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes are associated with supercells (Edwards et al. 2012a; hereafter E12), the forecaster typically can focus on the same ingredie...

This paper simulates the increase in the average annual loss from tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the years 2015 and 2050. The simulation is based on assumptions concerning wealth trends in the regions affected by the storms, considered by the change in material assets (capital stock). Further assumptions are made about the trend in storm intensity resulting from anthropogenic clima...

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index, there is high probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years; but the rate at which these storms become hurricanes...

It is frequently stated that 70%–80% of western North Pacific tropical cyclones form ‘‘within the monsoon trough,’’ but without an objective definition of the term. Several definitions are tested here. When the monsoon trough (MT) is defined as the contiguous region where long-term (1988–2010) mean July– November 850-hPa relative vorticity is positive, 73% of all July–November tropical cyclones...

Recent research to increase understanding, and techniques to improve forecasts, of the structure and structural changes of a tropical cyclone due to interaction with the environment are summarized. The atmospheric environment is considered here, and the oceanic, and air-sea interface environments are summarized in Topic 1.3. Progress in understanding how a tropical cyclone interacts with its en...

Using General Circulation Models (GCMs) for tropical cyclone studies is difficult due to the relatively small size of the storms, the intense convection and multitudes of large-scale small-scale interactions. These are mostly unresolved at typical GCM resolutions of about 50-100 km, and still challenged at high resolutions between 12-30 km. Nevertheless, high-resolution GCMs are becoming a tool...