We discuss how to avoid aggregation bias in large-scale global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models by reducing the need of pre-model aggregation, based on the combination of algorithmic improvements and a filtering approach which removes small transactions. Using large-scale sensitivity analysis, we show the impact of pre-aggregation and filtering on model size, model solution time and ...

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of computable general equilibrium (CGE) (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building conŽ dence sets on model endogenous variables. The Ž rst uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a conŽ dence set (sampling or Baycsian) is available for the free par...

This paper proposes a procedure to incorporate the conjectural variation approach in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis such that the strategic interaction among rival firms in international markets can be modelled. It shows how to calibrate the conjectured reactions of rival domestic and foreign firms. It also shows that the approach suggested by Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr (hence...

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are ubiquitous in energy and environmental economics research. Recent technological advancements in electricity fuels, generation technologies, and environmental policies which target specific generation technologies (e.g., emission regulations) have motivated detailed CGE modeling of the electricity sector. Modeling these issues requires distinct ele...

1 This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on poverty reduction in Bangladesh by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. By using CGE analysis we see that WTO and SAFTA have a positive impact of increasing in household welfare in Bangladesh through increasing in household consumption in Bangladesh. The major findings of two simulation results show that under the compl...

The abundant natural resources can bring either positive or negative impact to the country’s economy depending on the macroeconomic policies. Mongolia has massive mineral resource dominated by coal, copper, and gold. The Government of Mongolia has started to implement a number of infrastructure projects to decrease the mining project’s cost burden caused from the country’s weak infrastructure. ...

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization, now make much more modest forecasts than they did just a few years ago. The estimated benefits are not only small in the aggregate, but also skewed toward developed countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alle...

Alternative approaches to modelling distributional and welfare effects of changes in policy and the economic environment in developing and transition countries are surveyed. Microsimulations range from pure accounting approaches to models with behavioural equations based on econometric estimates and various dynamic models. Microsimulation accounting models are key to analysing the impact effect...

This paper examines the relative effect of changes in tax rates under three differing taxation schemes. Unlike previous modeling attempts, our analysis is performed at a relatively small scale, namely that of a city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of a small city and attempt to analyze the effects on local residents’ real incomes, city revenues and economic g...