Informed Trading and the Pricing of Good and Bad Private Information in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns We decompose PIN, the Probability of Informed Trading, into components that capture informed trading on good news (PIN G) and on bad news (PIN B), and provide new evidence that PIN and its components capture informed trading around quarterly earnings announcements. Our principal r...

This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive international dataset, we find that interest-rate related variables are usually among the most prominent predict...

We propose a direct and robust method for quantifying the variance risk premium on financial assets. We theoretically and numerically show that the risk-neutral expected value of the return variance, also known as the variance swap rate, is well approximated by the value of a particular portfolio of options. Ignoring the small approximation error, the difference between the realized variance an...

Marital status can both reflect and affect individual preferences. We explore the impact of marriage on corporate CEOs, and find that firms run by single CEOs exhibit higher stock return volatility, pursue more aggressive investment policies, and do not respond to changes in idiosyncratic risk. These effects are weaker for older CEOs. Our findings continue to hold when we use variation in divor...

An anti-capitalist cultural bias, through directed within-family human capital transmission, adversely affects the supply of entrepreneurial talent and risk-taking. This limits economic progress if aggregate productivity is low. When productivity is high, economic incentives can overcome cultural inertia. Though the income level depends on culture, the growth rate in this case does not. JEL Cod...

For determining the expected return, and asset pricing, CAPM (Capital pricing model) is being used dominantly grounded on only market (systematic) risk-factor though several anomalies have been revealed in this model. Fama French (1993) addressed those developed Three-factor model by combining size value factors besides factors. Over time, Carhart (1997) has further a addressing momentum factor...

We develop a horizontal R&D growth model that allows us to investigate the different channels through which financial reforms affect investment and patent activity. First, “micro” reform abolishes barriers entry in banking sector produces straightforward result: decrease lending rates stimulates economic growth. Second, “macro” removes restrictions on banks’ reserves credit controls. While this...

Article history: Received 20 September 2013 Accepted 23 December 2014 Available online 27 December 2014 This paper examines whether firms with greater research and development (R&D) expenditures earn higher stock returns when they have good corporate governance. After controlling for size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, asset growth, accruals, and abnormal capital expenditures, we determine th...

In this study, we compare the performance of trading strategies based on possibly mis-specified mathematical models with a trading strategy based on a technical trading rule. In both cases, the trader attempts to predict a change in the drift of the stock return occurring at an unknown time.We explicitly compute the trader’s expected logarithmic utility of wealth for the various trading strateg...

We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on the widely used quantification framework advocated by Carlson and Parkin (1975), the so-called “prob...