The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in emissions. If something similar would happen in China, projected emissions would fall by 50% or more. Break-up uncertainty dominates other scenario uncertainty JEL Classification: Q54

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political at...

A simple model allows rapid comparison of typical baseline and policy scenarios which might be considered under international programs to avoid CO2 emissions caused by forest clearing, such as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). These tests of REDD policy scenarios can also include CO2 stored in forest products. The value of avoided emissions can also be determi...

the importance of energy crisis and global warming necessitates presenting strategies in order to decrease the amount of emissions as well as fuel consumption in large and complex industries such as refineries and petrochemical industries. generally, refinery steam networks are regarded as units which consume fuel enormously. in this paper, the steam network of tehran oil refinery is considered...

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion may be reduced by using natural gas rather than coal to produce energy. Gas produces approximately half the amount of CO2 per unit of primary energy compared with coal. Here we consider a scenario where a fraction of coal usage is replaced by natural gas (i.e., methane, CH4) over a given time period, and where a percentage of the gas pr...

The reduction of ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a key objective for air pollution control policies in the UK and elsewhere. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 has been identified as a major contributor to adverse human health effects in epidemiological studies and underpins ambient PM2.5 legislation. As a range of emission sources and atmospheric chemistry transport proce...

The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP 2003) calls for the preparation of 21 synthesis and assessment products. Noting that “sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for comparative analysis of how climate might change in the future, as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options,” the Plan includes Product 2.1, Scenarios of Greenhouse G...

To investigate possible future climate changes in California, a set of climate change model simulations was selected and evaluated. From the IPCC Fourth Assessment, simulations of twenty-first century climates under a B1 (low emissions) and an A2 (a medium-high emissions) emissions scenarios were evaluated, along with occasional comparisons to the A1fi (high emissions) scenario. The climate mod...