Are share markets too volatile? While it is difficult to ignore share market volatility it is important to determine whether volatility is excessive. This paper replicates the Shiller (1981) test as well as applying standard time series analysis to annual Australian stock market data for the period 1883 to 1999. While Shiller’s test suggests the possibility of excess volatility, time series ana...

We agree that either mistaking a stochastic trend for a deterministic trend (or vice-versa) is consequential for unit root tests and for tests of nonlinear serial dependence. In addition, we comment that similar results obtain for ordinary parameter inference in simple linear models. In particular, we note that detrending stochastically trended data with a deterministic polynomial or by applyin...

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when hedging commodity price risk using futures contracts. For various methods of parameter estimation and infe...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

The paper considers estimation and inference of time series GMM models where a subset of parameters are time varying. The magnitude of the time variation in the unstable parameters is such that efficient tests detect the instability with (possibly high) probability smaller than one, even in the limit. We show that for many forms of parameter instability and for a large class of GMM models, stan...

This paper investigates to what extent the seminal contribution of Samuelson (1954) hasbeen or not incorporated by the theories of general equilibrium and mechanism designin their analysis of optimal public good provision and more generally of optimal publicpolicy. Our conclusion is that, far from taking up the challenges raised by Samuelson’scontribution, both paradigms lead to...

Samuelson (1947) stated that a regular equilibrium exhibits the transfer paradox if and only if it is unstable. Gale (1974) and many in the early 1980’s debunked this equivalence by adding extra countries, reaching an anti consensus. We reinterpret Samuelson’s result as identifying the threshold, i.e. the minimum level of trade beyond which the transfer paradox appears. This reinterpretation ge...

Available online 26 November 2010 This paper estimates the Heckscher–Ohlin model with annual US data from 1949 to 2006 for outputs of manufactures and services with inputs of fixed capital assets and the labor force. Difference equation and error correction regressions provide estimated coefficients for the comparative static system. Tariffs on manufactures primarily raise the capital return in...

In this paper an ex-post measurable definition of globalization has been used, namely increasing trade openness and FDI. A general result is that the optimistic HeckscherOhlin/Stolper-Samuelson predictions do not apply, that is neither employment creation nor the decrease in within-country inequality are automatically assured by increasing trade and FDI. The other main findings of the paper are...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain ...