Four methods of downscaling daily rainfall sequences from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are intercompared over Senegal, using a 13-station network of daily observations during July–September 1961–98. The local scaling method calibrates raw GCM daily rainfall at the closest grid point to a given station so that the climatological distribution of rainfall matches the observed one. T...

Atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted to quantify the contribution of internal oceanic variability in the form of tropical instability waves (TIWs) to interannual wind and rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific. It is found that in the tropical Pacific, along the equator, and near 25°N and 25°S, TIWs force a significant increase in wind and rainfall variability f...

[1] We quantify the effect of spatial patterns in climatological rainfall on shallow landslide susceptibility by forcing a physically based model of slope stability (SHALSTAB) with the rainfall pattern produced by a high-resolution atmospheric model (MM5) over the western Olympic Mountains of Washington State. Our results suggest that for two small basins in the Olympics, 10 km–scale variations...

Understanding rainfall variability, shifts and trends is of primary importance when considering the potential for biophysical, social and economic impacts. An increase in mean rainfall could enhance agricultural production and water supply. However, if this increase is associated with more extreme rainfall events, it can enhance flood frequency and intensity. Conversely, decreases in mean rainf...

[1] During the last decade, there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience, and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequ...

Precipitation change in response to global warming has profound impacts on environment for life but is highly uncertain. Effects of sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the response of rainfall and atmospheric overturning circulation are investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. The SST warming is decomposed into a spatially uniform SST increase (SUSI) and deviat...

1! Precipitation change in response to global warming has profound impacts on 2! environment for life but is highly uncertain. Effects of sea surface temperature (SST) 3! warming on the response of rainfall and atmospheric overturning circulation are 4! investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. The SST 5! warming is decomposed into a spatially uniform SST increase (S...

The relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to the rainfall variability over eastern, central, and southern Africa during austral spring-summer are examined. The variability of African rainfall is statistically related to both oceans, but the variability in the two oceans is also related. To separate the effects of the Indian and Pacific Ocea...

In this paper, we develop an empirical model of an agro-pastoral system subject to high climatic risk to test the impact of rainfall variability on livestock densities, land allocation patterns and herd mobility observed at the community level. Also, because grazing land is a common-pool resource, we determine the impact of cooperation on these decision variables. To capture different abilities...

Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 11 stations over North Queensland are examined for summers 1958– 1998, using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of the occurrence of five discrete ‘weather states’, identified by the HMM. Three states are characterized respectively by very wet, moderately wet, and dry conditions at most stations; two states have ...