Abstract Voters’ beliefs about the strength of political parties are a central part many foundational science theories. In this article, we present dynamic Bayesian learning model that allows us to study how voters form these by from pre-election polls over course an election campaign. model, belief adaptation new can vary due perceived precision poll or reliance on prior beliefs. We evaluate i...

CATI has been widely used in Italian surveys since the 1980s. As a matter of fact telephone interviewing, compared to traditional face-to-face data collection methods, allows to save time and money. It also offers further advantages: better control over the quality of the interview through a centralized facility, continuous monitoring and supervision, and the opportunity to include experiment-l...

This article examines the media coverage of vote intention polls in Netherlands. We assess whether quality reporting on depends availability information regarding pollster’s reports. Our analysis looks at three different measures: (1) mentioning WAPOR items, such as field dates, sampling method, and polling (2) margin error, (3) correct interpretation (in)significant changes differences. The Ne...

This article seeks to address current debates comparing polls and opinion mining as empirically based figuration models of public in the light in-depth intellectual on role nature that began after French Revolution controversy over spurred by invention polls. Issues historical quantification re-conceptualisation are addressed four parts. The first summarises history rise fall concept opinion. s...

The dominant methodology for short-term forecasting of electoral outcomes uses trial-heat polls, where respondents report their current electoral preferences (not their election-day predictions). Election markets, where self-selected participants trade shares of candidates at prices predictive of election-day results, provide an alternative method that often produces more accurate forecasts. Co...

Polls examining public opinion on the subject of climate change are now commonplace, and one-off public opinion polls provide a snapshot of citizen's opinions that can inform policy and communication strategies. However, cross-sectional polls do not track opinions over time, thus making it impossible to ascertain whether key climate change beliefs held by the same group of individuals are chang...

In his State of the Union address, President Obama referred to long lines faced at the polls on November 6, 2012, and said, “we have to fix that.” Although it seems to have received relatively little national attention, Richland County, South Carolina, with more than 12% of its votes cast after polls were officially closed, was probably among the very worst counties in the nation for lines and ...