This paper aims to provide a practical example on the assessment and propagation of input uncertainty for option pricing when using tree-based methods. Input uncertainty is propagated into output uncertainty, reflecting that option prices are as unknown as the inputs they are based on. Option pricing formulas are tools whose validity is conditional not only on how close the model represents rea...

This paper assesses whether the market valuation of gold mining firms contain a premium for the option to close. Real options theory states that the managerial flexibility with respect to operating decisions of the firm have a recognisable and identifiable value. Together with the present value of expected cash flows (incorporated via the Hotelling Valuation Principle), existing theory purports...

This paper presents a simple empirical approach to modeling and forecasting market option prices using localized option regressions (LOR). LOR projects market option prices over localized regions of their state space and is robust to assumptions regarding the underlying asset dynamics (e.g. log-normality) and volatility structure. Our empirical study using three years of daily S&P500 options sh...

Although stock option markets have grown dramatically over the past several decades, the relation between an option and its underlying asset, especially bidirectional conduction, is not particularly clear. So far, there have been many debates about this topic. We try to investigate this problem from a novel angle: an artificial stock market including a stock option is constructed in this paper....

Implied correlation and variance risk premium stand out in predicting market returns. However, while the predictive ability of implied correlation lasts for up to a year, the variance risk premium predicts market returns only for one quarter ahead. Contrary to the accepted view, implied correlation predicts the market return not through a diversification risk (average correlation) channel, but ...

Option pricing is the the core content of modern finance. American option is widely accepted by investors for its flexibility of exercising time. In this paper, American option pricing formula is calculated for uncertain financial market and some mathematical properties of them are discussed. In addition, some examples are proposed. keywords: finance, uncertain process, option pricing

If the underlying asset price process is unknown, arbitrageurs may not have sufficient incentive and confidence to use the underlying asset to arbitrage options. The option market makers can hedge their portfolios of temporary option inventories without the underlying asset, but investors’ risk attitudes and heterogeneous expectations could become relevant to option pricing. This paper shows th...

We consider option hedging and pricing for a large agent. The large agent affects the market’s demand-supply equilibrium and, therefore, the market prices of financial instruments. By assuming a specific large agent’s effect function for the underlying asset we derive the corresponding effect function for call options on that asset. As we show, the price of a call option in our model is the sol...

We consider option hedging and pricing for a large agent. The large agent affects the market’s demand-supply equilibrium and, therefore, the market prices of financial instruments. By assuming a specific large agent’s effect function for the underlying asset we derive the corresponding effect function for call options on that asset. As we show, the price of a call option in our model is the sol...