Using data from a repeated public good game, I conduct a Granger causality test and find that contributions and beliefs about the contributions of others decline together, with neither variable leading the other. As a result, I model contributions and beliefs using a system of simultaneous equations. Estimating the system provides evidence on the magnitude of the projection bias. Since contribu...

Both sides of the institutions and growth debate have resorted largely to microeconometric techniques in testing hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over 10 years and find support for the institutions hypothesis. Controlling for individual fixed effects, I find that exogenous shocks to a proxy for institutio...

This paper develops a new framework and tools, and reexamines Fama-French regressions. For Fama-French portfolios, we consider a continuous-time factor model with a specific error component structure implied by the underlying asset pricing theory. The model is then analyzed as a continuous-time multivariate regression with a general martingale differential error, allowing for time-varying and s...

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented t...

introduction: it was often believed that countries with natural resource abundance would undergo the process of development with a more accelerated pace in comparison to other countries. the experimental results, however, demonstrate a higher rate of success for countries which lack the said resources. the paradoxical effects of the possession, or a lack there of, natural resources on different...

extension of trade liberalization in countries is cause to increasing amount of goods in different sectors. exploit of global trade by increasing competitive power was regarded by researchers and policymakers in different countries. whereas abundance of production factor is one of the agent that makes advantage and qualitative land and labor force are two abundance production factors in agricul...

This paper presents alternative models of behavior of the Argentine gasoline market and applies parametric estimations to analyze the effect that the Repsol-YPF merger had on that market. Using monthly data for the different provinces of Argentina during 1999, we make an evaluation of that effect. We conclude that we cannot reject the hypothesis that the market was a Cournot oligopoly before th...

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region-specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating c...

This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large models that can be cast in a linear state space representation. We build large vector autoregressions (VAR...

For the past few years, regionalism has been progressing in East Asia with the likes of China, Japan, and Korea (CJK) as the most prominent actors. Unfortunately, with the absence of trade arrangement amongst the CJK, the present regional trade scheme is not sufficient to reach sustainability. This paper uncovers the inefficient scheme through Engle-Granger Cointegration and Error Correction Me...