In this study a regime switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (c&f) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The empirical results suggest that this model does successfully explain daily DM/Dollar forward exchange rate dynamics from 1982 to 1998. Moreover, our findings turned out to be relative robust by estimating the model in subs...

This paper focuses on the performance of various GARCH models in terms of their ability of delivering volatility forecasts for stock return data. Volatility forecasts obtained from a variety of mean and variance specifications in GARCH models are compared to a proxy of actual volatility calculated using daily data. In-sample tests suggest that a regression of volatility estimates on actual vola...

We develop a new asymptotic theory for autocorrelation robust tests using a vector autoregressive (VAR) covariance matrix estimator. In contrast to the conventional asymptotics where the VAR order goes to in…nity but at a slower rate than the sample size, we have the VAR order grow at the same rate, as a …xed fraction of the sample size. Under this …xed-smoothing asymptotic speci…cation, the as...

In this paper we provide a unified methodology for conducting likelihood-based inference on the unknown parameters of a general class of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models, characterized by both a leverage effect and jumps in returns. Given the nonlinear/non-Gaussian state-space form, approximating the likelihood for the parameters is conducted with output generated by the particle...

Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though conditional forecasting is common, there has been little work on or with methods for evaluating conditional forecasts. This paper provides analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on tests of predictive ability for ...

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and ...

This paper compares the cycles in UK sectoral output generated from both univariate and multivariate unobserved components models. Common trends and cycles are found among the sectors and it is found that these help to identify the cycles in the multivariate model. JEL Classi...cation: C32, E32.

Asymptotics are known to be unreliable in multivariate models with cross-equation or non-linear restrictions, and the dimension of the problem makes bootstrapping impractical. In this paper, "nite sample results are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for a nearly non-stationary VAR, and for a di!erential dynamic demand model with homogeneity, Slutsky symmetry, and negativity. The full...