The train derailment is one of the major accidents in rail transit safety system. The reach uses collision accident of rail transit train in Tokyo and Shanghai as the case. Firstly, it present fishbone diagram to qualitatively analysis main factors in derailment. Then it set up a derailment accident tree model with the qualitative and quantitative analysis of. The results show that illegal oper...

When a modern corporation empowers its staff to use blogs to communicate with colleagues, partners, suppliers and customers, the role of management in exercising oversight and guidance over the public speech of staff becomes dramatically challenged. This paper describes a computational solution to the interpretation of human-readable blog publishing policy documents into semi-automatic disconfo...

We develop an expression for the long-term discount rate in an economy in which a representative consumer has access to both a risk-free and a risky production technology. Even when the risk-free sector is very small, and with probability one becomes a negligible fraction of the economy in the long run, interest rates are determined differently than in a single-sector economy. As in a single-ri...

Neurologists have professional, ethical, and social obligations to ensure that expert witness testimony is reliable, objective, and truthful. In the past, an absence of professional regulatory oversight combined with immunity from civil litigation allowed the partisan expert to flourish. This is no longer the case. The expert witness unquestionably faces an increasingly perilous liability clima...

Decision tree analysis is a formal methodology by which complex decision problems can be decomposed into sequences of contemplated decisions (or acts) and their uncertain consequences (or events). The analysis is naturally and conveniently depicted in the form of a tree, where the branches emanating from a given node represent alternative acts or events. Anticipated cash flows and probabili...

The BORA project has developed a model based on the use of Event Trees, Fault Trees, Influence Diagrams, Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) and simplified modelling of dependencies between RIFs. The model has been outlined in several earlier papers. Some case studies have been performed in the project. The experience from these case studies has been used in order to develop a generalised methodolo...

The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., shi...