In this paper we use neural network models to forecast earnings per share (EPS) of Chinese listed companies using fundamental accounting variables. The sample includes 723 Chinese companies in 22 industries over 10 years. The result shows that the neural network model with weights estimated with genetic algorithm (GA) outperforms the neural network with weights estimated with back propagation (...

ABSTRACT This paper synthesizes the literature on management earnings forecasts (MFs) and adaption mechanisms, combines existing theories into a unifying framework, discusses primary determinants of MF accuracy informativeness. The proposed model refines by emphasizing dynamics multiperiod interactions among firm management, financial analysts, investors, thereby simplifying assessment complex ...

The objective of this study is to examine whether analysts fully incorporate a nonproportionate algorithm of cost-change relative to revenue-change in forecasting earnings. We conjecture that the errors in analysts’ earnings forecasts made in the first month after the fiscal year-end are largely due to the errors in estimating expenses as a result of analysts’ use of a proportionate cost-change...

Relying on the well-established theoretical result that uncertainty has a common and an idiosyncratic component, we propose a new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast errors estimated by a GARCH model. The new measure is based on both common and private information available to analysts at the time they make their for...

Recent studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that there is also a negative relationship between forecast dispersion and a firm’s unexpected future earni...

We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs––a setting in which analysts’ ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be spun off even though these subsidiaries constitute a significant part of the parent company operations. Moreover, while the level...

this study presents empirical evidence concerning the effect of different accounting standard on earnings management. prior studies have shown that accounting standards influence earnings management. tighter accounting standards regime restricts management’s descretion to manipulate accruals, and at the same time, induce more costly real earnings management activities. to investigate this iss...

Governments have always affected the economic environment as a policy maker. On the other hand, the presence of political connection as representatives of governments in companies affects their administrative and decision - making methods.Firms and managers manage them under environmental conditions by applying different approaches to earning management in order to achieve their goals.The gover...

This study analyzes trends in analyst forecast properties from 1987 through 1998 in the United States and seven Pacific Rim countries: Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Analyst forecast properties in the United States have become less dispersed, more accurate, and less optimistic during the sample period. Similar trends exist in Australia and New Zeala...