the economic situation in the arab countries is due to several factors as the political crisis in a socio-economic vulnerability. political changes are usually accompanied by a drop in production, a deterioration of macroeconomic balances, a high level of poverty, an appearance of economic corruptions and a structural increase in unemployment. in addition, the expansion of terrorism is a main i...

We present a model of the propagation process of bank runs. A bank failure alone is not sufficient to trigger a panic. In accord with the empirical evidence, runs become contagious only during periods of macroeconomic instability. In addition, we make a clear distinction between illiquidity and insolvency as possible causes of bank failures. We also show that, despite the possibility of runs, t...

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of priv...

This paper examines how the scale and composition of public debt can affect economies that implement a combination of “passive” monetary policy and “active” fiscal policy. This policy configuration is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest in the cases of the U.S. and Japanese economies. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce...

This paper investigates the implications of major financial markets crises for the human capital accumulation decisions of households. We use data for Argentinean households over the period 1995-2002 to examine households’ response to negative idiosyncratic income shocks in different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular we study how teenagers’ school progress responds to household head unempl...

We propose an approach to optimally select corporate bond portfolios based on bond-specific characteristics (maturity, credit rating, coupon, illiquidity, past performance, and issue size) and macroeconomic conditions (recessions and macroeconomic uncertainty measures). The approach relies on a parametric specification of the portfolio weights and allows us to consider a large cross-section of ...

Submitted: Mar 21, 2013; Accepted: Apr 30, 2013; Published: Jul 27, 2013 Abstract: Management of development is impossible without development of macroeconomic transformations strategy. In modern conditions instability, imbalance of economic system with subsystems and elements which constantly change are inherent in the states. Base of tax regulation strategy is connection of system, synergetic...

Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the presence of parameter instability. The empirical evidence shows that for some countries we can reject th...

1 Introduction The national innovation system (NIS) approach brings an alternative to the traditional view of innovation as a process of radical change in frontier sectors. The NIS approach offers a conceptual instrumental extremely useful for the understanding of the innovation dynamics at local, regional and national levels. However, as emphasized by Cassiolato and Lastres (2000), there are s...

The financial intermediation sector is important not only for channeling resources from agents in excess of funds to agents in need of funds (lending channel). By issuing liabilities it also creates financial assets held by other sectors of the economy for insurance purpose. When the intermediation sector creates less liabilities or the value of outstanding liabilities falls, agents are less wi...