Electrical load modeling and forecasting are critically important in the electrical network and smart grid. The sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) algorithm can be utilized to model and forecast the electrical load behavior. The SBL algorithm can solve a sparse weight vector with respect to a kernel matrix for modeling electricity consumption. However, traditional SBL can only handle an electricity...

An efficient and accurate electrical power Short Term Load forecasting plays a vital role for economic operational planning of both the electricity markets as well as regulated power systems. Till date many techniques and approaches have been presented for STLF in the literature. However there is still an essential need to develop more efficient and accurate load forecast model. This paper uses...

The prepaid electric power metering market is being driven in large part by advancements in and the adoption of Smart Grid technology. Advanced smart meters facilitate the deployment of prepaid systems with smart prepaid meters. A successful program hinges on the ability to accurately predict the amount of energy consumed on a daily basis for each end user. This method of forecasting is called ...

The smart meter is an important part of the smart grid, and in order to take full advantage of smart meter data, this paper mines the electricity behaviors of smart meter users to improve the accuracy of load forecasting. First, the typical day loads of users are calculated separately according to different date types (ordinary workdays, day before holidays, holidays). Second, the similarity be...

Analysis of urban saturated power loads is helpful to coordinate urban power grid construction and economic social development. There are two different kinds of forecasting models: the logistic curve model focuses on the growth law of the data itself, while the multi-dimensional forecasting model considers several influencing factors as the input variables. To improve forecasting performance, a...

This paper presents a study of the influence of the accuracy of hourly load forecasting on the energy planning and operation of electric generation utilities. First, a k Nearest Neighbours (kNN) classification technique is proposed for hourly load forecasting. Then, obtained prediction errors are compared with those obtained results by using a M5’. Second, the obtained kNN-based load forecast i...

Electricity is indispensable and of strategic importance to national economies. Consequently, electric utilities make an effort to balance power generation and demand in order to offer a good service at a competitive price. For this purpose, these utilities need electric load forecasts to be as accurate as possible. However, electric load depends on many factors (day of the week, month of the y...

Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the Mean Square Error (MSE) a common-used loss function guide training of accurate forecasting model. However, MSE unable precisely reflect real costs associated with errors because cost caused by in probably neither symmetric nor quadratic. To tackle this issue, paper proposes generalized cost-o...

Penetration of smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems. Probability density forecasting methods can effectively quantify the uncertainty of power load forecasting. The paper proposes a short-term power load probability density forecasting method using kernel-based support vector quantile regression (KSVQR) and Copula theory. A...

This paper proposes a new method for load forecasting—the wavelet neural network model for daily load forecasting. The neural call function is basis of nonlinear wavelets. A wavelet network is composed by the wavelet basis function. The global optimum solution is got. We overcome the intrinsic defects of a artificial neural network that its learning speed is slow, its network structure is diffi...