A better understanding of the effect openness on volatility can lead to more effective government policy that addresses adverse outcomes volatility. By using NARDL model, Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, and annual time-series data from period 1981 2020, this study examined output in Ethiopia. From bound test, research find a long-run cointegration between volatility, agricultural output, trade op...

Separating cyclical movement from trend growth at seasonal and business cycle frequencies is important to macroeconomic research. At business cycle frequencies, time trends, first differences and the more recent Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter are used to separate trends from cycles. At seasonal frequencies, ad-hoc methods like the Census Bureau’s X-11 seasonal filter are applied. This paper revie...

The paper is focused on the construction of a new composite indicator intended to predict economic cycle Poland and its comparison with existing CLI used by international institutions such as OECD Eurostat. In part, this research also dedicated monitoring partial advance cyclical indicators that make up components their changes over time. explores 62 qualitative quantitative relationship develo...

This article generates innovative confidence intervals for two of the most popular de-trending methods: the Hodrick-Prescott and Band-Pass filters. The confidence intervals are obtained using block-bootstrapping techniques for dependent data. As an example, we present GDP trend growth and output gap intervals for the G7 economies. This new concept can improve the utility and applications of the...

The analysis of Serbia's residential real estate market is the main goal this paper. Price movements in that part affect price and financial stability equally, which are thus goals most central banks. Prior to highly contagious COVID-19 pandemic, there was a gradual increase number transactions involving prices, with oscillations observed throughout second quarter 2020. In paper, we will presen...

Abstract A growing body of literature has highlighted two important caveats to the credit-to-GDP gap as advocated by Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The first relates approach used normalise credit (i.e. dividing nominal GDP). In this regard, critics have argued that GDP movements, may or not be relevant, run risk affecting a normalised measure credit. second use Hodrick-Prescott (HP)...

Within a New Zealand business cycle context, we assess whether Hamilton’s (H84) OLS regression methodology produces stylised facts which are materially different from the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) and Baxter–King (BK) measures, using H84 predictor for forecast-extension improves HP filter’s properties at ends of series. Stylised were computed set key macroeconomic variables. In general, greater vol...

This paper presents the synchronisation of economic cycles GDP and crude oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports. On one hand, this issue fits into concept sustainable development including decoupling; on other may be an early warning tool. Crude are a specific barometer that predicts next cycle, especially as they primary sources energy production. The research study applies number...

The Covid-19 pandemic has become one of the biggest shocks to Indonesian economy. As a result pandemic, there was deep pressure on aggregate demand and supply as well, so economic output decreased not at optimal levels. This paper will show business cycle or fluctuations that occurred during pandemic. method used in this is decomposition Indonesia's quarterly real GDP for 2000-2022 period into ...