The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate the in sample and out of sample forecasting performance of several GARCH-type models such as GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH model with Gaussian, student-t, Generalized error distribution (GED), student-t with fixed DOF 10 and GED with fixed parameter 1.5 distributional assumption in case of Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), Sri Lanka. The daily All Shar...

i n the past decades, the effect of different tax amendments on various economic issues has been studied. the majority of these studies have avoided considering shadow economy as part of the calculation and analysis, and an issue, which has received little attention, is the relationship between green tax reforms and shadow economy, as for informal labor, which is well-connected to unemployment ...

This paper analyses the application of a switching volatility model to forecast the Ž . distribution of returns and to estimate the Value-at-Risk VaR of both single assets and portfolios. We calculate the VaR value for 10 Italian stocks and a number of portfolios based on these stocks. The calculated VaR values are also compared with the variance–coŽ . variance approach used by JP Morgan in Ris...

Article history: Received 11 October 2012 Received in revised form 3 November 2014 Accepted 3 November 2014 Available online 11 November 2014 In this paper, we investigate the dynamic response of stock market volatility to changes in monetary policy. Using a vector autoregressive model, our findings reveal a significant response of stock returns and volatility to monetary policy shocks. While t...

This paper provides a new empirical guidance for modeling a skewed and fat-tailed error distribution underlying the traditional GARCH models for equity returns based on empirical findings on Realized Volatility (RV), constructed from the summation of higher-frequency squared (demeaned) returns. Based on an 80-year sample of U.S. daily stock market returns, I find that the distribution of monthl...

UNLABELLED The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to t...

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine if they are more appropriate for predicting future return volatility. Employing German DAX-index retu...

This paper proposes a new class of characteristic-function-based distribution tests for two-sample comparison, simple hypotheses, and conditional distribution assumptions of econometric models. The proposed tests are easy to compute and have χ2(2) as the asymptotic null distribution. Comparing to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Cramérvon Mises (CV) tests, the proposed test can flexibly account ...

We introduce a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the constant-correlation hypothesis in a multivariate GARCH model. The test examines the restrictions imposed on a model which encompasses the constant-correlation multivariate GARCH model. It requires the estimates of the constant-correlation model only and is computationally convenient. We report some Monte Carlo results on the "nite-sample pro...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics based on three different data sets and two flexible parametric specifications. The significance of nonlinearity in the short-rate drift declines with increasing maturity for the interest-rate series used in the study. Using a flexible diffusion specification and incorporating GARCH volatility and non-normal in...