This paper represents a new approach in the exchange rate determination by using microstructural and macroeconomic variables. We test combination of fundamentals microstructure variables cointegrated relationship USD/JPY USD/GBP currencies' pairs. The ‘twofold' model includes interest rate, money supply net foreign assets as fundamentals, spread high-low variable. Then we compare different mode...

heretofore, a vast spectrum of pattern recognition methods has been considered by researchers to design credit scoring models. but what has not been considered enough in these studies is the lack of consideration of the needs of this subject which differentiate it from a simple classification. it is necessary to observe the costs of a wrong classification, because practically the cost of improp...

Article history: Received 18 July 2013 Received in revised form 9 May 2014 Accepted 15 May 2014 Available online 22 May 2014 Highly volatile scenarios, such as those provoked by the recent subprime and sovereign debt crises, have questioned the accuracy of current risk forecasting methods. This paper adds fuel to this debate by comparing the performance of alternative specifications for modelin...

This paper examines the relationship between realized daily skewness and future stock returns and investigates the impact of information releases on that relationship. We find that there exists a negative relationship between realized daily skewness and subsequent stock returns when there is no high-impact information release, but that the relationship becomes positive if the realized skewness ...

Article history: Received 30 May 2014 Received in revised form 11 January 2015 Accepted 16 March 2015 Available online xxxx Themechanismof risk responses tomarket shocks is considered as stagnant in recent financial literature, whether during normal or stress periods. Since the returns are heteroskedastic, a little considerationwas given to volatility structural breaks and diverse states. In th...

Academics and practitioners have long recognized the importance of a firm’s industry membership in explaining its financial performance. Yet, contrary to conventional wisdom, recent research shows that industry-specific profitability forecasting models are not better than economy-wide models. This paper re-examines the incremental advantage of industry-specific models. We find considerable indu...

We investigate non-linearities in the stock return trading volume relationship by using daily data for 16 European countries in an asymmetric vector autoregressive model. In this framework, we test for asymmetries and analyze the dynamic relationship using a simulation based procedure for computing asymmetric impulse response functions. We find that stock returns have a significant influence on...

While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast the U.S. bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to the use of technical indicators which are widely employed by practitioners. In this paper, we fill this gap by studying the predictive ability of using a variety of technical indicators vis-á-vis the economic variables. We find that the technical indicators have significa...

In this paper, we propose a multivariate quantile regression method which enables localized analysis on conditional quantiles and global comovement analysis on conditional ranges for high-dimensional data. The proposed method, hereafter referred to as FActorisable Sparse Tail Event Curves, or FASTEC for short, exploits the potential factor structure of multivariate conditional quantiles through...

The part of credit spread that is not explained by corporate credit risk forecasts future economic activity. I show that the link with aggregate business risk and bond liquidity risk explains this finding. Once I project spreads on these two risk factors, which are readily measurable with the daily frequency, in addition to corporate credit risk, the forecasting power of the residual spread red...