This study measures the proportion of U.S. real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative prices of nontraded goods. The decomposition is done at all possible horizons that the data allow—from one month up to 30 years. The accounting is performed with five different measures of nontraded-goods prices and real exchange rates, for exchange rates of the United ...

In this note we discuss the paper on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2012). In particular we discuss issues related to forecast origins and forecast horizons when higher frequency exchange rate movements are predicted using lower frequency quarterly macroaggregates. JEL Nos.: C53, C12, C52

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C11 E32 E52 Keywords: New Keynesian models Small open economy Monetary policy Taylor rules Bayesian methods Using the Bayesian approach, a small open economy DSGE model was estimated using a sample of quarterly data for three Central and Eastern Europe economies, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The hypothesis that central banks react to exchange rat...

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals to obtain non-spurious l...

Purpose ― This article explores the causal link between stock and currency returns in The Middle Eastern North African (MENA) countries from January 2011 through February 2020. Methods study uses Vector autoregressive (VAR) Markov switching vector (MS-VAR) models to investigate dynamic causality equity exchange rate markets. Findings Results indicate that this relation depends on state of Furth...