In this paper we discuss three rather special characteristics shared by many environmental problems. Namely, that (i) the environmental variables in which we are most interested constitute a stochastic process; (ii) the long-term or limiting behavior and the short-term or transient behavior are often both important; and (iii) the underlying probability distributions are likely to be influenced ...

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision-making processes and choices, little research has...

We construct a strategic trade model of an international duopoly, whereby production by exporting firms generates a local pollutant. Governments use environmental policies, i.e., an emissions standard or a tax, to control pollution and for rent shifting purposes. Contrary to their firm, however, governments are unable to perfectly foresee the actual level of demand, the cost of abatement and th...

The objective of the AREA research is to develop a probabilistic methodology for optimal, in-situ assessment of the environmental parameters most critical to the uncertainty of the acoustic prediction, within constraints of the actual acoustic system configuration and the available tactical REA resources. The goal is an efficient modeling and simulation framework, which allows for real-time pre...

How much does a chemical present a real risk to human and environment? The goal of risk assessment is to estimate the likelihood and the extent of adverse effects occurring to man, animals or ecological systems due to possible exposure(s) to substances. The assessment of whether a substance presents a risk to organisms in the environment is based on the comparison of a predicted environmental c...

This paper describes uncertainty quantification (UQ) of a complex system computational tool that supports policy-making for aviation environmental impact. The paper presents the methods needed to create a tool that is “UQ-enabled” with a particular focus on how to manage the complexity of long run times and massive input/output datasets. These methods include a process to quantify parameter unc...

Because of the uncertainties and irreversibilities that are often inherent in environmental degradation, its prevention, and its economic consequences, environmental policy design can involve important problems of timing. I use a simple two-period model to illustrate these optimal timing problems and their implications for environmental policy. I then lay out and solve a continuous-time model o...

Uncertainty of environmental impacts is a major factor limiting the effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) and is likely to increase in importance with the introduction of mandatory Strategic EA in the EU. A synthesis and evaluation of approaches to dealing with uncertainty was found to be lacking in the literature. Approaches to dealing with uncertainty in EA were identified from liter...

There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In ...