One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9 % for growth and 1.6 % for inflation. Six (11) OECD and 10 (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth forecast (the current year forecast). All full record-length inflation forecasts were significantly ...

accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpfs) have been always a demanding and challenging job in numerical weather prediction (nwp). the outputs of ensemble prediction systems (epss) in the form of probability forecasts provide a valuable tool for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (pqpfs). in this research, different configurations of wrf and mm5 meso-scale models form ...

Generally, we value forecasts for their accuracy. In some cases, however, the forecasts themselves are interesting because of what they reveal about the forecaster. Monetary policymaker forecasts are important because they partially reveal what policymakers believe will follow from their decisions. Forecasts of inflation and real output (whether made by Federal Reserve officials or private sect...

A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of in‡ation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this …nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delay...