The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California an...

Optical backbone networks carry a huge amount of bandwidth and serve as a key enabling technology to provide telecommunication connectivity across the world. Currently, fiber-optic cables carry about 99% of global Internet traffic. Hence, in events of network component (node/link) failures, communication networks may suffer from huge amount of bandwidth loss and service disruptions. Natural dis...

The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are tho...

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in N...

G reat earthquakes of magnitude 8.5 or larger occur infrequently. For a nearly 40-y period after the February of 1965 M 8.7 Rat Islands, Alaska earthquake, the world did not experience a single great earthquake; however, in the 7 y since late December of 2004, there have been a barrage of five great earthquakes. These earthquakes include the 2004 M 9.1 Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake; the 2005 M ...

A stochastic model for earthquake occurrence focusing on the spatio-temporal interactions between earthquakes is discussed. The model is a marked point process model in which each earthquake is represented as a marked point in space and time. The marks are given by the magnitudes of the earthquakes but other observed properties of the earthquakes, such as information on the fault lines, can str...

No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a patt...

Current studies of fault interaction lack sufficiently long earthquake records and measurements of fault slip rates over multiple seismic cycles to fully investigate the effects of interseismic loading and coseismic stress changes on the surrounding fault network. We model elastic interactions between 97 faults from 30 earthquakes since 1349 A.D. in central Italy to investigate the relative imp...

BACKGROUND Large earthquakes have been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. In Japan, the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji (H-A) Earthquake was an urban-underground-type earthquake, whereas the 2011 Great East Japan (GEJ) Earthquake was an ocean-trench type. In the present study, we examined how these different earthquake types affected CVD mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS We examine...

although knowing the time of the occurrence of the earthquakes is vital and helpful, unfortunately it is still unpredictable. by the way there is an urgent need to find a method to foresee this catastrophic event. there are a lot of methods for forecasting the time of earthquake occurrence. another method for predicting that is to know probability density function of time interval between earth...