Using a standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we have shown that the forecast uncertainty from the standpoint of a policy maker can be expressed as the disagreement among forecasters plus the perceived variability of common aggregate shocks. Thus, the uncertainty of the average forecast is not the variance of the average forecast but rather the average of the variances of the i...

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), based on forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. These fore...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indic...

This paper asks how well a general equilibrium agency cost model describes the dynamic relationship between credit variables and the business cycle. A Bayesian VAR is used to obtain probability intervals for empirical correlations. The agency cost model is found to predict the leading, countercyclical correlation of spreads with output when shocks arising from the credit market contribute to ou...

The coronavirus epidemic has dealt a serious blow to many sectors of the economy around globe. energy sector dropped significantly and been affected during pandemic. issue prices for products its production become aggravated, which test ministries. In this article, it examined situations in Europe Russia as an giant. It is difficult at moment determine all impacts that will have on electricity ...

Oxygen supply implies higher production cost and reduction of maximum theoretical yields. Thus, generation fermentation products is more cost-effective. Aiming to find a key piece for the (poly)-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) as product, here we characterize an acetoacetyl-CoA reductase, isolated from Candidatus Accumulibacter phosphatis-enriched mixed culture, showing (kcatNADH/KMNADH)/(kcatNADPH/KMN...