This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from United States, I document a positive covariance between workers' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities earnings GDP, which is key moment for new class heterogeneous-agent models. define matching multiplier as increase stemming this high MP...

We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages (standard) monetary policy rule contribute slow response In turn, labor market segmentation at the level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps fast sector-specific est...

The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the destruction countercyclical. This new finding can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead lumpy employment adjustment. predicts that policies aim stimulate encouraging creation, such as subsidies, are significantly less effective recessions: these times when few firms near their thresholds and m...

Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving has important effects for real activity. High levels issued expansions are only gradually reduced recessions. generates an adverse feedback loo...

After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative can stimulate economy by lowering that commercial charge on loans, they also erode bank profitability squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies effects a new DSGE model where intermediate transmission monetary...

We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events underreact to new information. Existing models expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. develop a rational theory extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidenc...

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd investment stimulate growth, but expectation about future crowds out reduces identify bubbly episodes estimating using US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that IT housing not only caused booms also lifted GDP almost 2 per...

August 9, 2016 Circulation. 2016;134:e32–e69. DOI: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000000426 e32 Robert L. Page II, PharmD, MSPH, FAHA, Chair Cindy L. O’Bryant, PharmD Davy Cheng, MD, MSc Tristan J. Dow, MD Bonnie Ky, MD, MSCE C. Michael Stein, MB ChB, FAHA Anne P. Spencer, PharmD Robin J. Trupp, PhD, ACNP-BC, FAHA JoAnn Lindenfeld, MD, FAHA, Co-Chair On behalf of the American Heart Association Clinical Pha...

Motivated by the effects of COVID-19 pandemic, we present a theory Keynesian supply shocks: shocks that reduce potential output in sector economy, but that, reducing demand other sectors, ultimately push aggregate activity below potential. A shock is more likely when elasticity substitution between sectors relatively low, intertemporal high, and markets are incomplete. Fiscal policy can display...