In the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting, restrictions are often imposed on the smoothing parameters which ensure that certain components are exponentially weighted averages. In this paper, a new general restriction is derived on the basis that the one-step ahead prediction error can be decomposed into permanent and transient components. It is found that this general restriction red...

The forecast combination literature has optimal combination methods, however, empirical studies have shown that the simple average is notoriously di cult to improve upon. This paper introduces a novel way to choose a subset of forecasters who might have specialized knowledge to improve upon the simple average over all forecasters in the SPF. In particular, taking the average of forecasters that...

The ability of rat liver microsomes to catalyze UDP-glucuronic acid-dependent glucuronidation of monohydroxy-bile acids was examined. The following bile acids were used as substrates, each as the 3 alpha and 3 beta epimer: 3-hydroxy-5 beta-cholanoic acid (C24), 3-hydroxy-5 beta-norcholanoic acid (C23), 3-hydroxy-5 beta-bisnorcholanoic acid (C22), 3-hydroxy-5 beta-pregnan-21-oic acid (C21), and ...

The paper explores the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. It documents that a country’s equity market value has significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity price index for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The...

Recent evidence suggests that many economic time series are subject to structural breaks, yet little is known about the properties of alternative forecasting methods for such data. This paper proposes a new method for determining the window size that explores the trade-off between bias and forecast error variance to minimize the mean squared forecast error in the presence of breaks in autoregre...

Sialic acid-binding immunoglobulin-like lectin-9 (Siglec-9) on leukocyte surface is a counter-receptor for endothelial cell surface adhesin, human primary amine oxidase (hAOC3), a target protein for anti-inflammatory agents. This interaction can be used to detect inflammation and cancer in vivo, since the labeled peptides derived from the second C2 domain (C22) of Siglec-9 specifically bind to ...

We develop new tests for the coe¢ cient on a time trend in a regression of a variable on a constant and time trend where there is potentially strong serial correlation. This serial correlation can also include a unit root. We obtain tests under two different assumptions on the initial value for the stochastic component of the variable being examined, either this being zero asymptotically (as in...