This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with multiple equilibria arise in the model. But the model yields distinctive predictions about the behav...

We provide one of the first tests of recent macro global-game crisis models that show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g. Angeletos and Werning 2006; Morris and Shin 2002, 2003). In these models, self-fulfilling crises (independent of fundamentals) can occur only when publicly disclosed fundamental signals have high precision; fundamentals are thus the sole driver o...

Thanks to the interdisciplinary nature of crises, the position of researchers in that field is rather difficult. Very often the traditional methods of research cannot be applied there. The article is aimed at the changes in crises research. It describes the substance of individual changes and emphasizes the shift in research approaches to the crisis. Keywords—crisis, change, research

While a crisis requires quick response of emergency management factors, ontology is generally represented in a static manner. Therefore, an adaptive ontology for crisis knowledge representation is needed to assist in coordinating relief efforts in different crisis situations. The paper describes a method of ontology modeling that modifies the ontology in real time during a crisis according to t...

today wahhabism is one of the most important radical movement that has been formed and operated in most of the countries of the islamic world. moreover, we witness the influence of this school of thought in this territory and its direct impact on various events like the crisis in chechnya. due to the importance of studying these religious movements in chechnya and their impacts on its crisis, t...

sometimes, disharmony among the three powers of sovereignty emerges as an important crisis in political system and reduces its efficiency. in this article, analyzing the disharmony crisis, a theoretical description regarding the main indicators of this crisis has been offered. in the framework of the above mentioned theoretical description the main indicators of the disharmony crisis are 1) the...

An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to ...

Kosmicare project implements crisis intervention in situations related to the use of psychoactive substances at Boom Festival (Portugal). We present evaluation research that aims to contribute to the transformation of the project into an evidence-based intervention model. It relies on harm reduction and risk minimization principles, crisis intervention models, and Grof's psychedelic psychothera...

Crisis response is a critical area of research, with encouraging progress in the past view yeas. The aim of the research is to contribute to building future crisis environment where software agents, robots, responders, crisis managers, and crisis organizations interact to provide advice, protection and aid. This paper discusses the crisis response domain requirements, and provides analysis of f...

Based on literature and expert interviews, we developed the Crisis Leader Efficacy in Assessing and Deciding scale (C-LEAD) to capture the efficacy of leaders to assess information and make decisions in a public health and safety crisis. In Studies 1 and 2, we find that C-LEAD predicts decision-making difficulty and confidence in a crisis better than a measure of general leadership efficacy. In...