What we know about the Burnt City civilization is unfortunately limited to archeological findings and studies. We have no knowledge about the customs and rituals, beliefs, and myths of this civilization, which has made the analysis of archeological findings difficult. Therefore, our analyses are entirely based on speculations. However, I believe that one of the best ways to understand what happ...

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction – learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect – based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the intuitive distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether or not a causal relationship exists, and asking how strong...