We assess the performance of 30 CMIP5 and two CMIP3 models using metrics based on an all-Australia average rainfall and NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The assessment provides an insight into the relative performance of the models at simulating long-term average monthly mean values, interannual variability and the seasonal cycles. It also includes a measure of the ability to capture ob...

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is 3 investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under 4 two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the 5 near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, 6 even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial re-7 ductions in sulphate aer...

[1] The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes a comparison of observation-based and modeling-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative forcing. In this comparison, satellite-based studies suggest a more negative aerosol direct radiative forcing than modeling studies. A previous satellitebased study, part of the IPCC comparison, uses aero...

تأخیرهای طولانی در تکمیل واحدهای مسکونی، ناشی از عدم‌­تأمین منابع مالی کافی و به‌موقع یکی مشکلات سازندگان فرآیند تولید مسکن است؛ بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با توجه به چالش‌­هایی که مانع پیش‌فروش مؤثر مسکونی برای تأمین هستند، بر آن است تا ارائه مدلی اساس رویکرد پویایی­ سیستم، سیاست­‌های پیش‌­فروش را راستای مکفی به‌موقع، کاهش تأخیر تکمیل، هزینه فرصت ازدست‌رفته حصول توازن بین سود سازنده خریدار تعیین کند....

پیوند اعضا از ارکان مهم سیستم‌‌های سلامت است و به درمان بسیاری بیماری‌‌های صعب‌العلاج کمک شایانی کرده است. روزانه 7 تا 10 نفر بیماران نیازمند در ایران علت نرسیدن به‌موقع عضو پیوندی دنیا می‌­روند. با توجه بحرانی­‌بودن زنجیره برای سلامتی انسان، مدیریت برنامه‌ریزی این اهمیت فراوانی برخوردار انتقال بیمار یک بیمارستان محل تأثیر ثانیه‌‌ها بر کیفیت مورد­انتقال موفقیت پیوند، بسیار حائز پژوهش، مدلی ریاض...

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs and compare them to land use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations wi...

Underestimated rainfall over Amazonia was a common problem for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) models. We investigate whether it still exists in the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) models and, if so, what causes these biases? Our evaluation of historical simulations shows that some models still underestimate rainfall over Amazonia. During the dry season, both convective and large...

[1] The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol em...

In South Korea, flood damage mainly occurs around rivers; thus, it is necessary to determine the optimal design frequency for river basins prevent damage. However, there are not enough studies showing effect of climate change on hydrologic frequency. Therefore, estimate according future scenarios, this study examined urban flooding area and extreme rainfall that can in future. After estimating ...