Abstract The aim of the paper is to compare forecasting performance a class statedependent autoregressive (SDAR) models for univariate time series with two alternative families nonlinear models, such as SETAR and GARCH models. study conducted on US GDP growth rate using quarterly data. Two methods forecast comparison are employed. first method consists in evaluation average by measures root mea...

In the jungle, power and coercion govern the exchange of resources. We study a simple, stylized model of the jungle that mirrors an exchange economy. We define the notion of jungle equilibrium and demonstrate that a number of standard results of competitive markets hold in the jungle. JEL Classification: C7, D4, S477, B201

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during the Berlin 99 state elections. JEL Classification: C93, D4, G1

This study empirically re-examines the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in India for period 1990–2017. Multivariate dynamic models are applied to estimate different modes of namely road, rail air transports vector error correction model framework. The results reveal that road have significant positive contribution long-run while is insignificant. further examine...

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized ‡oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed m...

Employing a probit, logit and gompit model this paper demonstrates that small firm development, represented by a group of structural, behavioral and performance variables determines regional location in Poland. The paper uses original data that samples the small firm stratum in two contrasting regions, Pomorskie and Lubelskie. The following variables were shown to be significantly correlated wi...

In this paper, we re-examine the empirical relevance of the cost channel of monetary policy. We employ recently developed moment-conditions inference procedures, which provide a more e¢ cient and reliable econometric framework than in previous literature. Using US data, our results suggest that there is no substantial evidence for the existence of a cost channel. Keywords: Cost channel; Phillip...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...

A least squares estimation approach for the estimation of a GARCH (1,1) model is developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimator are studied given mild regularity conditions, which require only that the error term has a conditional moment of some order. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality and the law of iterated logarithm for our estimate. The finite sample properties are a...

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation risks. The proposed parametric methodology bridges the empirically established benefits of TVP regressions ability to flexibly whole distribution inflation. In order make our approach accessible and relevant forecasting, we derive an efficient Gibbs sampler by transforming stat...