This study examines the performance of the S&P 100 implied volatility as a forecast of future stock market volatility. The results indicate that the implied volatility is an upward biased forecast, but also that it contains relevant information regarding future volatility. The implied volatility dominates the historical volatility rate in terms of ex ante forecasting power, and its forecast err...

In their 2014 article in the British Journal of Political Science, Eleanor Neff Powell and Joshua A. Tucker examine the determinants of party system volatility in post-communist Europe. Their central conclusion is that replacement volatility – volatility caused by new party entry and old party exit – is driven by long-term economic performance. This article shows that this conclusion is based e...

Volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: contemporaneous return and conditional return volatility are negatively correlated. In this article I develop an asymmetric volatility model where dividend growth and dividend volatility are the two state variables of the economy. The model allows both the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect, the two popular explanations of asymmetry. T...

In this paper, we argue that study of the effect of financial development and shocks on aggregate growth volatility will not be informative because they affect growth volatility through its different components. Financial development affects only the business cycle component of volatility and therefore, the effect on total volatility is dependent on its share in total volatility. On the contrar...

This paper uses quantile regression to investigate the asymmetric return-volatility phenomenon with the newly adapted and robust implied volatility indices VIX, VXN, VDAX and VSTOXX. A particular goal is to quantify the effects of positive and negative stock index returns at various quantiles of the implied volatility distribution. As the level of the new volatility index increases during marke...

We compare the dynamic hedging performance of the deterministic local volatility function approach with the implied/constant volatility method. Using an example in which the underlying price follows an absolute diffusion process, we illustrate that hedge parameters computed from the implied/constant volatility method can have significant error even though the implied volatility method is able t...

Expected future volatility plays a central role in finance theory. Consequently, accurate estimation of this parameter is crucial to meaningful financial decision-making. Researchers generally on the past behavior of asset prices to estimate volatility, relating movements in volatility value with prior volatility and/or variables in the investors' information set. These procedures are by nature...