Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, cha...

Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores applicability of approaches wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using...

Models that predict wildfire rate of spread (ROS) play an important role in decision-making during firefighting operations, including fire crew placement and timing community evacuations. Here, we use a large set remotely sensed observations, explanatory data (focusing on weather), to demonstrate Bayesian probabilistic ROS modelling approach. Our approach has two major advantages: (1) Using act...

Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefit...

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046–2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated me...

The economic and ecological damages caused by wildfires are alarming. Because such damages are expected to increase with changes in wildfire regimes, this calls for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners include purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages their properti...

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th...

Abstract. In the last twenty years, destructive wildfires have affected environment to tune of billions dollars. An accurate model is crucial for predicting spreading in a variety conditions. this study, multi-kernel convolution neural network (CNN) deep learning was proposed based on elevation, wind direction, and speed, minimum maximum temperatures, humidity, precipitation, drought index, nor...

Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We expl...