The long-term goal of this project is to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, structure and intensity changes through improved representation of 3-dimensional TC structure at the initial time. The accurate prediction of TC genesis, structure and intensity changes is critical to Navy missions and civilian activities in coastal areas. Significant gains have been made in the TC...

This paper reports experiments in which pCRU — a generation framework that combines probabilistic generation methodology with a comprehensive model of the generation space — is used to semi-automatically create several versions of a weather forecast text generator. The generators are evaluated in terms of output quality, development time and computational efficiency against (i) human forecaster...

FEBRUARY 2004 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | S cientific research on atmospheric processes and weather forecasting frequently leads to improvements in weather forecasts [such as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)], as measured by scientific criteria. Furthermore, effective use of such improvements has the potential for avoiding injury and death, averting property and environmental da...

MIT Lincoln Laboratory has developed the Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), which provides automated convective weather guidance to air traffic managers of the NYC metro region. Prior studies of RAPT have shown high-accuracy guidance from forecast weather, but further refinements to prevent forecast misclassification is still desirable. An attribute set of highly correlated predictors for...

IN THE NEWS FOCUS STORY “WEATHER forecasts slowly clearing up” (9 November, p. 734), R. Kerr nicely summarizes how the growing improvement in prediction is coming from a focus on “more computer power, the assimilation of radar observations, and more physically realistic models.” He emphasizes that better assimilation of satellite data is a key element of improved forecasting. Unfortunately, the...

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce time series data of basic weather parameters which human forecasters use as guidance while writing textual forecasts. Our studies of humans writing textual weather forecasts led us to build SUMTIME-MOUSAM, a text generator that produces textual marine weather forecasts for offshore oilrig applications. SUMTIME-MOUSAM separates control and proces...

The increment of solar energy production requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance. A forecast of surface solar irradiance allows estimate the energy production, i.e., to minimize the fluctuations in the electric grid supply. In this work a numerical weather forecast model provides surface solar radiation estimations over a coastal region with changeable weather and typically ...

The forecast process within an operational weather centre is based upon the analysis, diagnosis and prognosis of skilled meteorologists. To aid their efforts, the forecasters use a wide range of tools including weather satellites, radar, workstations, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tremendous gains in NWP performance over the past 2 decades has made this tool typically the most ...

Weather forecasting in Antarctica is essential for US Antarctic Program (USAP) operations. However, forecasting in this region is extremely difficult both because the observational and modeling tools available are inadequate and because our understanding of the science behind the meteorology of Antarctica is incomplete. The weather of Antarctica is dominated by three factors: (1) the polar high...

The MLWFA (Multilingual Weather Forecasts Assistant) system will be demonstrated. It is developed to generate the multilingual text of the weather forecasts automatically. The raw data from the weather observation can be used to generate the weather element chart. According to the weather change trend, the forecasters can directly modify the value Of the element on the chart, such as the center...