this paper explains a model for analyzing and measuring the propagation of order amplifications (i.e. bullwhip effect) for a single-product supply network topology considering exogenous uncertainty and linear and time-invariant inventory management policies for network entities. the stream of orders placed by each entity of the network is characterized assuming customer demand is ergodic. in fa...

Here H(X) measures the average uncertainty associated with the random variable X. If X is the lifetime of a system and if the system has survived up to time t, then to measure the uncertainty about the remaining lifetime of such a system the measure (1) is not appropriate. Ebrahimi (1996) proposed a measure which measures the uncertainty about the remaining lifetime of a system if it is working...

This paper considers a plethora of time-series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth, which are widely used in empirical studies. Their relative performances are compared to a benchmark measure using the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the period 1982-2008. The results show that the use of real-tim...

Rough set theory is a relatively new mathematical tool for computer applications in circumstances characterized by vagueness and uncertainty. In this paper, we address uncertainty of rough sets for incomplete information systems. An axiom definition of knowledge granulation for incomplete information systems is obtained, under which a measure of uncertainty of a rough set is proposed. This meas...

Uncertainty theory is a new branch of axiomatic mathematics for studying the subjective uncertainty. In uncertain theory, uncertain variable is a fundamental concept, which is used to represent imprecise quantities (unknown constants and unsharp concepts). Entropy of uncertain variable is an important concept in calculating uncertainty associated with imprecise quantities. This paper introduces...

We introduce implied volatility duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with high IVD corresponding to late resolution. Portfolio sorts on large cross-section stocks indicate that investors demand, average, more than 5% return per year compensation resolution uncertainty. In general equilibrium model, we show “late” can only have higher expected returns “early”...