The long-term goal of this project is to provide probabilistic genesis forecast guidance to operational forecasters and develop a genesis index to provide guidance for operational dynamical model prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Once regions of high TC genesis probability are identified, a movable, multi-nested version of the COAMPS with resolution of roughly 3 km or less in the inn...

The long-term goals and objectives of this research are to develop a more complete physical understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change processes. This year’s work focused on the following three areas: Determining the three-dimensional asymmetric dynamics of the TC core region; Testing hurricane maximum intensity theory; Analyzing the environmental influences on the intensification ...

The primary question to be addressed is to understand the mesoscale and microphysical differences between cloud clusters that do develop into tropical cyclones and those that do not. Because the problem is not just an issue of the differences of structure within the cloud cluster itself, but is also an issue of how the cloud cluster interacts with the surrounding large-scale environment, a two-...

Surveys of the physical aspects of landfalling tropical cyclones are important for at least three reasons: (a) to test the veracity of numerical surge models by comparison with topographically surveyed debris lines that mark the level of marine inundation, along with records from tide gauges; (b)to determine the relative contributions of surge, tide, wave action and wave run-up to the total mar...

[1] We use five years of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to develop a correlation between the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) and the zonal mean tropical surface temperature. AIRS data show that the frequency of DCC in the tropical oceans is very temperature sensitive, increasing 45% per 1 K increase of the zonal mean surface temperature. The combination of the sensi...

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western...

Tropical cyclone Tracy (Tracy) remains one of the most destructive natural hazard events in Australia’s history. Growth in the population and size of Darwin since 1974 makes it desirable to know what impact an event similar to Tracy would have on the present day built environment. To assess the impacts in 1974 and the present day, we apply the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) developed at Geo...

At IWTC-V in Cairns, Australia, researchers and forecasters agreed that a research program focusing on important physical characteristics associated with the extratropical transition (or “ET”) of tropical cyclones (TC) was needed. This research program should promote analysis of existing observational and modeling datasets to: (i) improve analyses and prediction of the structure changes, signif...

A database of tropical cyclone best track and intensity information for the southwest Pacific Ocean basin is used to construct a 28-year climatology for tropical cyclones that move into middle latitudes. Of the nine or so tropical cyclones that form each year, an average of about three can be expected to migrate south of 358S, with the greatest fraction in March. Storms entering the Tasman Sea ...