People are optimistic about problem solving. This paper identifies hallmarks of optimistic human problem solving and how people control for the errors it often engenders. It describes an architecture that permits a controlled version of optimistic problem solving and recounts experiments with it in three very different domains. Results indicate that, controlled for error, optimistic problem sol...

[1] The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios for 2000 to 2050 describe contrasting future developments in agricultural land use under changing climate. Differences are related to the total crop and livestock production and the efficiency of nutrient use in agriculture. The scenarios with a reactive approach to environmental problems show increases in agricultural N and P soil balances in a...

This paper establishes an approach to develop models for forecasting demand and evaluating policy scenarios related to planned capacity expansion for meeting optimistic and pessimistic future demand projections. A system dynamics framework is used to model and to generate scenarios because of their capability of representing physical and information flows, which will enable us to understand the...

We consider the multi armed bandit problem in non-stationary environments. Based on the Bayesian method, we propose a variant of Thompson Sampling which can be used in both rested and restless bandit scenarios. Applying discounting to the parameters of prior distribution, we describe a way to systematically reduce the effect of past observations. Further, we derive the exact expression for the ...