The specific objectives of the current effort are: 1. To continue our study of the dynamical processes in tropical cyclones responsible for looping or erratic motion; 2. To continue the development of methods for (a) the introduction of synthetic tropical-cyclone-scale vortices in operational forecast models and (b) ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones; 3. To continue a sensitivity study o...

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content ...

Tropical cyclone wind-intensity prediction is a challenging task considering drastic changes climate patterns over the last few decades. In order to develop robust prediction models, one needs to consider different characteristics of cyclones in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. Transfer learning incorporates knowledge from a related source dataset to compliment a target datasets e...

Correlations between geophysical parameters and tropical cyclones are essential in understanding and predicting the formation of tropical cyclones. Previous studies show that sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear significantly influence the formation and frequent changes of tropical cyclones. This paper presents the utilization of a new approach, data mining, to discover the collectiv...

We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage i...

Several studies have examined the sensitivity of fronts and cyclones to model physics over the ocean or flat terrain in mesoscale models (e.g., Zhang et al. 1999). Nonetheless, fewer studies have examined the sensitivity of fronts and cyclones over complex terrain to model physics in the WRF model at very high resolution. Physics parameterizations in the WRF model, including multiple choices of...

Unprecedented warming in the Arctic has led to a dramatic reduction in both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice (Stroeve et al. 2011), opening up opportunities for business in diverse sectors such as fossil fuel and mineral extraction, shipping and tourism (Jung et al. 2016). Industrial activities in the Arctic are expected to be subject to high levels of investment over the coming decad...

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western...

[1] The U. S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) daily analysis fields are used to study the African easterly waves to show how they impacted two tropical cyclones. Danielle and Earl (2004) formed approximately at the same time in the Atlantic. A three to eight day band-pass filter is applied to the daily global analysis fields to reveal the characteristics of the Af...

Tropical cyclones are an example of a multihazard event with impacts that can highly vary depending on landfall location, wind speed, storm surge, and inland flooding from precipitation. These storms are typically categorized by their wind speed and pressure, while evacuation orders are typically given based on storm surge. The general public relies on these single hazard assessment parameters ...