نتایج جستجو برای: sales forecast
تعداد نتایج: 50528 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
A growth model for the timing of initial purchase of new products is developed and tested empirically against data for eleven consumer durables. The basic assumption of the model is that the timing of a consumer's initial purchase is related to the number of previous buyers. A behavioral rationale for the model is offered in terms of innovative and imitative behavior. The model yields good pred...
• Consumers are now comfortable purchasing additional product categories online, such as apparel and jewelry, which were traditionally considered brick-and-mortar-only categories. In a 2011 study conducted by Forrester, only three of the 30 retail categories that Forrester measured in its e-commerce forecast had had online sales greater than 20% of the total category sales in 2001. By 2011, tha...
This paper examines the role of managerial judgment in forming a final forecast, or judging the achievability of a critical level of sales, when multiple forecasts or opinions are available to the decision maker. Several factors that can help improve the quality of human intervention are identified and incorporated in a decision ard. Experimental results show that aided combination can help the...
Several studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that stocks with higher forecast dispersion also experience poorer operating performance in the future. We...
As the old saying goes, “Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket lest you drop the basket and lose all of your eggs.” Suppose the head of a forecasting division of a company has two sources of forecasts for the company’s sales, one source being the forecasts generated by the division’s econometrics group using an econometric time series model and the other source being the aggregated forecasts...
In this paper, we proposed a hybrid system to combine the self-organizing map (SOM) of neural network with case-based reasoning (CBR) method, for sales forecast of new released books. CBR systems have been successfully used in several domains of artificial intelligence. In order to enhance efficiency and capability of CBR systems, we connected the SOM method to deal with cluster problems of CBR...
In this paper, we develop prelaunch forecasting model reflecting competition structure among various technologies and this model overcomes limitations of the Bass-type diffusion model which relies upon historical sales data. This paper applies our model to the HomeNetworking(H-N) market where there exist various alternative technologies in South Korea. First of all, we develop a Bayesian model ...
Retail inventory productivity is of considerable interest to retailers, manufacturers and distributors who service them, and stock market analysts. Inventory turnover is frequently used to measure inventory productivity. We find wide variation in inventory turnover across retailers and over time. The causes of this variation have not been studied systematically to our knowledge. We develop a lo...
The continued expansion of the casino industry has caused increasing concern regarding the cannibalization of other industries (e.g., state lotteries), an issue of particular importance to policymakers since casinos and lotteries can make a significant impact on state budgets. Although previous papers have found that casinos and lotteries act as substitutes, no previous research has analyzed th...
During a visit with one manufacturer, we interviewed an analyst who was responsible for generating the sales forecasts used by logistics and production. As we began discussing the sales forecasting process used by his department, he explained that at the beginning of each month, he generated a quantitative forecast for the coming month for each product (SKU) and then examined the forecast to se...
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