Concerns over bioterrorism and emerging diseases have led to the widespread use of epidemic models for evaluating public health strategies. Partly because epidemic models often capture the dynamics of prior epidemics remarkably well, little attention has been paid to how uncertainty in parameter estimates might affect model predictions. To understand such effects, we used Bayesian statistics to...

Risk assessment is an important and significant aid in the decision making process. Risk assessment is performed using ‘model’ and a model is a function of parameters which are usually affected by uncertainty. Some model parameters are affected by aleatory uncertainty and some others are affected by epistemic uncertainty. In this paper we propose a hybrid method to deal with propagation of both...

Some structural control systems have been devised to protect structures against earthquakes, which the tuned mass damper (TMD) being one of the earliest. The effect of a tuned mass damper depends on its properties, such as mass, damping coefficient, and stiffness. The parameters of tuned mass dampers need to be tuned based on the main system and applied load. In most of the papers, the paramete...

This paper shows an approach to identify the uncertainty of the parameters in a lumped parameter model from experimental data. This approach is applied to a hydrostatic drivetrain setup in which the behavior of both the hydraulic pump and motor vary as the temperature of the oil changes. The model contains a large amount of parameters, describing the dependency between the speed, pressure and s...

Supplying of blood and blood products is one of the most challenging issues in the healthcare system since blood is as extremely perishable and vital good and donation of blood is a voluntary work. In this paper, we propose a two-stage stochastic selective-covering-inventory-routing (SCIR) model to supply whole blood under uncertainty. Here, set of discrete scenarios are used to display uncerta...

Some of the parameters in issues of the reality world are uncertainty. One of the uncertain problems with the qualitative parameters is economic problems such as bankruptcy problem. In this case, there is a probability of dealing with imprecise concepts including the intervals regarding the official’s viewpoint, organizations’ managers. Accordingly, this article uses the concepts of data envelo...