We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the meanreverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration techniques that account for the time series and cross-sectional dependencies of the regression err...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edger...

This paper examines the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) using CPI and Big Mac prices. The benchmark model, i.e., the OLS method, which does not take nonstationarity into account, rejects the hypothesis of PPP regardless of prices used. We next use the panel cointegration method to consider the nonstationary nature of variables. Estimated results for CPI are mixed. The PPP is rejected ...

In this paper, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration in the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model are based on either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The cointegrating vector in this paper is not pre-specified. We adopt a supremum Wald type test to account for the so-called Davies problem. The asymptotic null distributions...

We investigate the long-term equilibrium relationship between Australian dollar bonds of different credit quality. Contrary to the expectations hypothesis we find the yields of Eurobonds are not cointegrated with the equivalent maturity Government bond. Nevertheless, the results suggest that the yields of the different risk classes of Eurobonds are cointegrated with one another, with the higher...

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic aggregates in the foreign sector in India. By applying the techniques of unit–root tests, cointegration and the long–run Granger non–causality test recently proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), we test the causal relationships between the BSE Sensitive Index and the three macroeconomic variable...

We examine the price dynamics in Indian cities using cointegration analysis. We identify and then calculate a common trend for prices in these 25 cities. We obtain the impulse response functions to calculate the rates of convergence to the prices, and find that the half-life of any shock is very small for Indian cities. Although a close to three-month half-life seems too fast, there are some in...

Prediction markets serve as popular devices to aggregate beliefs and to assess market estimated probabilities. By looking at the interaction between realand play-money prediction markets, this paper shows that traded volume has a significant positive effect on the probability of realand play-money market cointegration. This indicates that the information aggregation process, eliminating individ...

The paper examines the time-series evidence relating to participation rates in further education in England and Wales, and uses cointegration analysis to identify a long-run statistical relationship in the data consistent with an augmented human-capital model. The recent rapid growth of participation is attributable largely to the improvements in GCSE attainment of the last decade, coupled with...